The climate crisis was headline news heading into 2020 with the record setting wildfires in Australia, flooding in Africa, and the increased speed of deforestation in the Amazon. By March a new existential threat, one with more immediate repercussions for many of us, took hold; COVID-19. The planet shut down, people stopped traveling, and we hunkered down to ride out one of the most widespread pandemics in modern history. As a result we began to see what might be possible when we approach a worldwide crisis with bold moves. As people stayed home, Los Angeles experienced its cleanest air in decades, cities in India were able to see the nearby mountains for the first time in a generation, and you could finally see the marine life in Venice. While we are nowhere near out of the woods with the pandemic, we should be working to ensure that the new normal we return to is better than the one we left, and that means taking on the climate crisis head first.
This summer I will be reflecting on some of the changes cities, states, and countries can take to help address the climate crisis, but to begin I want to look at some of the most devastating consequences of inaction may be.
Let’s think about some of the major natural disasters that we’ve experienced over the last several years. The wildfires in California have been some of the most devastating in history and their intensity can already be linked to climate change. California’s temperatures have risen by more than 1.5 degrees Celsius over the last century, more than worldwide average, which has lengthened the fire season by up to 75 days due to longer periods of drier conditions. Hurricane Harvey, which devastated Houston in 2017, was found to produce 38 percent more rainfall than a storm of its strength typically would if the world wasn’t warming, far more than even the original predictions of scientists. Superstorm Sandy in 2012 was one of the first major storms where scientists were able to prove a connection to climate change through the use of modeling systems. While these are American examples you can look around the world to find similar stories. Each of these stories will become less unique as time goes on, and some will look minuscule compared to what could happen if we don’t begin to act.
In 2018, the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) published a report that demanded that we make significant changes by 2030 or risk experiencing a hellish future. The Paris Agreement in 2015 had the world commit to keeping temperatures below a 2 degrees Celsius rise, with a push to cap it at 1.5 degrees Celsius. As of 2018 we were on track to exceed a 3 degrees Celsius rise. Without significant changes the world will see food shortages, water shortages, and an increased risk of all forms of natural disasters. If we have any hope of reaching those targets we must reduce our emissions by 45 percent when compared to 2010… We’ve increased them since then.
But let’s look at some of the other issues associated with climate change. One of the most discussed is sea level rise. Scientists are expecting at least four feet of sea level rise just from the warming that is already taking place across the planet. Many cities are already experiencing nuisance flooding on a regular basis, dropping home values so far that they’re unable to sell them, such as in many of the poorer neighborhoods in Atlantic City. And this rise in sea levels isn’t taking place uniformly. The below video from The Verge helps explain why the melting of the glaciers is even worse for some areas of the world, like New York. Many cities have developed plans to build up barriers to help protect against this risk, but they have been rightfully criticized for emphasizing the protection of wealthier areas while leaving poorer communities and communities of color at increased risk. New York’s Big U project will protect the southern tip of Manhattan up to the Lower East Side. While this does protect a large low income neighborhood, it does not address the issues in Eastern Queens and South Brooklyn where the majority of Superstorm Sandy’s devastation hit. Even in Atlantic City an ongoing construction project is working to protect the casinos and summer homes along the oceanfront while leaving the low income neighborhoods on the bayside of the city vulnerable.
We can also think about air pollution and the increased likelihood of illnesses that will come from climate change. Most of us picture Los Angeles or 1970s New York, or even worse would be Pittsburgh in the 1940s, when we think of smog and air pollution. Beijing famously had to deal with their smog issues before the 2008 Summer Olympics out of fear of harming international athletes during the competition. Now India is trying to get a handle on their dangerous levels of pollutants. While these are very visible signs of pollution we must consider some of the less visual signs, such as higher asthma and cancer rates. These primarily show up in less affluent communities and minority communities, the reasons for which can be traced back to many racial policies of the past. As a result of this pollution, these communities are far more susceptible to diseases, especially respiratory viruses such as COVID-19. But even if you don’t live in one of these communities, the climate crisis will increase the frequency and severity of pandemics for all of us. The warmer climate and our development patterns have shrunk the natural habitats for many wild animals, bringing us closer together, shrinking biodiversity, and increasing the likelihood of a disease transferring from one species to another.
If all of this is still not enough to convince you, or perhaps more importantly those in positions of power, to take action, the climate crisis will also cause economic devastation throughout the world. One report from the UN estimates that the United States will see its economy shrink by over 10 percent by 2100 due to the climate crisis. Other reports have put the worldwide cost up to $69 trillion dollars during the same period. While shifting how our economies function and revamping our transit networks, electric grids, and land use policies will carry a significant cost, it will end up driving our economy in the long run. Already the solar industry in the US employs more people than the coal and gas industries combined.
Now I did not cover all of the severe impacts that the climate crisis will bring, but I hope the ones I did mention help illustrate how serious of a crisis we are facing. In the coming weeks I’ll be discussing some ways that we can begin to address this crisis, primarily focused on how our cities function and develop, with an aim to begin a dialogue about what our future should look like.